Topic

Savi & Phool's Cubimal Ratings - A guide for cubimal rarity, odds, and value ratings


Savi & Phool's Cubimal Ratings Agency


By using data on the results of opening cubimal boxes, the S&P Agency has determined the approximate odds of opening a cubimal and have established a corresponding S&P Rating.

For more in depth information, visit my spreadsheet at:
docs.google.com/spreadsheet...
The spreadsheet contains supplemental info including percentages, totals, charts, timelines, and all of my submission data.

The following data is based on a sample size of 5963 cubimals.

D Grade Cubimals     (projected odds 16.6%)
Chick - 17.16% - D
Piggy - 16.64% - D
Butterfly - 15.71% - D

C Grade Cubimals     (projected odds 8%)
Batterfly - 8.30% - C
Frog - 8.20% - C
Crab - 7.98% - C
Firefly - 7.97% - C

B Grade Cubimals     (projected odds BB: 2%, BBB 1.25%)
Bureaucrat - 2.20% - BB
Juju - 2.06% -  BB
Sno Cone Vendor - 1.98% - BB
Cactus - 1.90% - BB
Squid - 1.90% - BB
Greeterbot - 1.39% - BBB
Smuggler - 1.24% - BBB
Deimaginator - 1.22% - BBB
Dust Bunny - 1.06% - BBB

A Grade Cubimals     (less than 1%)
Gwendolyn - 0.67% - A
Magic Rock - 0.54% - A
Uncle Friendly - 0.52% - AA
Helga - 0.45% - AA
Yeti - 0.45% - AA
Rube - 0.32% - AAA
Rook - 0.15% - AAA


If you're confused by the ratings system, it's relatively simple. A-grade cubimals are the best, and D-grade cubimals are the worst. Within a grade, a triple-letter rating is the best of that grade, single-letter is the worst. A Grade and B Grade cubimals are considered investment grade cubimals. All cubimals below B Grade are considered junk cubimals and hold little to no value. You should expect the ratings of investment grade cubimals to slightly shift as we collect more data.

A couple noteworthy statistics:
You have an 81.96% chance of opening a junk cubimal (49.51% D, 32.45% C)
You have a 14.94% chance of opening a B Grade cubimal
You have a 3.10% chance of opening an A Grade cubimal

About Savi & Phool's Cubimal Rating Agency

This thread is an offshoot of another thread about the odds of opening a particular cubimal (for science!) from an unopened box. We are currently using a lot of their data, but we hope to receive submissions in this thread following our guidelines so we can give you the best cubimal rarity and value information possible. As we receive new data, we will update the odds and ratings in the original post.

Our assumptions:
We are operating under the assumption that vendor location or source (vendor, Rube, wheel) does not affect the odds. We are only interested in the total counts of cubimals you have personally opened.

Submission guidelines:
25 cubimal minimum sample size.
Only include data on cubimals you personally opened.
Do not submit data from any pre-launch period.
Do not exclude C & D Grade cubimals from your counts, the data is only useful if you submit EVERY cubimal you opened, whether it is rare or common.

As a reminder, we don't need info split up by location or source.
When you submit updates, post a new reply with your additions. However, if you only keep track of your total please specify so that your earlier posts aren't double counted.

Our goal:
We hope to reach a sample size of 5000+ cubimals using high quality data from 15+ high quality sources, as this should be enough to firmly establish a cubimal's rarity. We hope this information will help cubimal traders complete their sets by knowing the fair value of their excess inventory. We aren't interested in establishing a dollar value for cubimals (though this data will be helpful for those who are), but we are interested in creating the most accurate set of cubimal odds and ratings possible.

I hope people will find this thread useful. For those who have submitted their information to the other thread, we would appreciate a submission of your most recent data. And if you're remotely interested in this and haven't been keeping track, please start doing so. Every set of data helps.

Posted 13 months ago by Haze Subscriber! | Permalink

Replies

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  • Thanks to the influx of data over the past two days, we went from 1869 to 2770, a huge jump.

    The biggest changes:
    Gwendolyn made a huge downward fall
    Deimaginator is no longer the rarest B Grade, for the first time ever

    Also there appears to be a nice convergence of overall group odds.
    D Grade: 50%
    C Grade: 32%
    B Grade: 15%
    A Grade: 3%

    I was kind of wondering what everyone thought about the exact odds for A & B Grade cubimals. Do you think there are sub-groupings with identical odds, or will it be more like a gradient where they are all slightly different?

    I've come to realize that with such a large array of possibilities (23 cubimals) including some with such infinitesimal odds, it will be difficult to determine some of the exact odds due to margins of error.

    Right now it's looking like all C Grade will have odds of 8%, whereas in the past the Crab frequently clocked in at a high 6% range, and some started out in the high 8% range. This suggests convergence around a single rarity value. But even D Grade cubimals still appear as though there might be a sequence, Butterflies have been in the high 15% range for a long time, rather than the expected 16 2/3, so do you think there could be a sequence like 17 1/3, 16 2/3, and 16? So what are everyone's thoughts? Sub-grouping or gradient?
    Posted 13 months ago by Haze Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Here are 40 more:

    Chick: 4
    Pig: 12
    butterfly: 8
    batterfly: 4
    firefly: 2
    frog: 2
    crab: 3
    bureaurcroc: 1
    juju: 1
    sno cone vendor: 2
    magic rock: 1
    Posted 13 months ago by Shepherdmoon Subscriber! | Permalink
  • I suspect some shadowy cubimal hedge fund is spreading disinformation with a view to shorting Gwendolyn.
    Posted 13 months ago by dr_loplop Subscriber! | Permalink
  • updated! 65 (40+25) cubimals, cubimals from last batch marked by +:
    11 chicks (+5)
    9 butterflies (+3)
    9 crabs (+3)
    9 pigs (+8)
    7 batterflies (+2)
    5 frogs
    5 fireflies (+1)
    2 magic rocks
    2 jujus (+2)
    2 snocones (+1)
    1 greeterbot
    1 helga
    1 gwendolyn
    1 smuggler
    Posted 13 months ago by Mustafa John Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Hey all. This is amazing. This is great data!

    I took this data and did the same thing I did before to work out the "effective price the Toy Vendor is charging for specific cubimals". 

    This time I put it in a public Google Doc so it'll be easy to update. I also included some other probability related numbers answering questions like "How many boxes would I have to open to have a 50/90/99% chance of getting cubimal-X?"

    Here's the link for them that's interested:
    docs.google.com/spreadsheet...

    Read the notes and linked discussions carefully before freaking out. :)
    Posted 13 months ago by Paddy Pablo Subscriber! | Permalink
  • 12 x Chick
    7 x Piggy
    11 x Butterfly

    7 x Frog
    1 x Batterfly
    5 x Crab
    7 x Firefly

    2 x Bureaucrat
    1 x Squid
    2 x Sno Cone Vendor
    3 x Greeterbot
    1 x Smuggler
    2 x Deimaginator

    1 x Gwendolyn
    1 x Rook

    Total: 63
    Posted 13 months ago by Tizrah Subscriber! | Permalink
  • D Grade Cubimals
    Chick - 38
    Butterfly - 29
    Pig - 39

    C Grade Cubimals
    Firefly - 15
    Frog - 20
    Batterfly - 17
    Crab - 15

    B Grade Cubimals
    Cactus - 4
    Bureaucrat - 3
    Squid - 7
    Juju - 6
    Dust Bunny - 4
    Sno Cone Vendor - 5
    Greeterbot - 3
    Smuggler - 2
    Deimaginator - 1

    A Grade Cubimals
    Helga - 2
    Yeti - 1
    Gwendolyn - 2
    Uncle Friendly - 1
    Rube - 1
    Rook - 1
    Magic Rock - 0

    Total : 216
    Posted 13 months ago by Alikwatsas Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Tired of spending your currants just buying Cubimal Boxes? 

    Consider buying cubimals direct from other players and recording the transaction in the interests of Cubimal Science!

    Post your completed purchases/sales HERE to start the effort to track market trends, market prices, et c., on cubimal purchases/sales! It's a thread for science to collect records of what people have paid each other for cubimals. 

    You too can help the cause of understanding the mystery that is the cubimal... :) 

    Bookmark the link and post an update whenever you buy or sell a cubimal (or find one on the street, or give one away free, or get one as a present). 

    www.glitch.com/forum/genera...
    Posted 13 months ago by Paddy Pablo Subscriber! | Permalink
  • I bought 50 at one go

    chick - 8 piggy - 9 butterfly -10 firefly - 8 batterfly - 4 frog - 4 cactus - 2 smuggler -1 gwendolyn - 1 crab - 1 sno cone - 1 yeti - 1 greeterbot - 1
    Posted 12 months ago by Titus Pullo Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Hey all, thanks again for all your help. I've been a bit busy lately so I'm trying to keep my updates down to twice a week or so. When I do updates I spend most of my time transcribing data into the post, the tabulation is quite easy, so this saves me some time as well. So for all who submit data, rest assured the totals will be updated in a timely manner. I don't plan on abandoning this thread anytime soon.

    I increased my goal for data collection to 5000+ samples. I know of at least two people working their way towards 1000 cubimals opened, so this is already a pretty realistic goal.

    Also, I'm going to work on adding a google spreadsheet that contains my data in a more transparent manner. This should be helpful for anyone that wants to use my data in more advanced ways, and give me a chance to add some more interesting info like value charts. I've forgotten everything I know about statistics, but I'm sure this info could be useful to a lot of people.
    Posted 12 months ago by Haze Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Alright, the google spreadsheet is finished.

    docs.google.com/spreadsheet...

    The spreadsheet contains supplemental info including percentages, totals, charts, timelines, and all of my submission data, so others can use more than just my simple averages.

    I may have gone a bit overboard, I hope adding new submission data won't take me forever to update all the charts, etc. So anyways, do not be surprised if I begin updating more periodically. Hope you enjoy the spreadsheet.
    Posted 12 months ago by Haze Subscriber! | Permalink
  • I opened 200 cubimals according to your guidelines (without great luck :/). Here's what I got... seems in line with your values.

    D Grade Cubimals
    Chick - 34
    Butterfly - 24
    Pig - 37

    C Grade Cubimals
    Frog - 17
    Batterfly - 14
    Crab - 15
    Firefly - 17

    B Grade Cubimals
    Bureaucrat - 6
    Cactus - 8
    Squid - 5
    Sno Cone Vendor - 4
    Juju - 6
    Greeterbot - 2
    Smuggler - 0
    Deimaginator - 6
    Dust Bunny - 0

    A Grade Cubimals
    Gwendolyn - 2
    Uncle Friendly - 0
    Helga - 1
    Magic Rock - 1
    Yeti - 1
    Rube - 0
    Rook - 0

    Total: 200
    Posted 12 months ago by proggrocier Subscriber! | Permalink
  • 20 cubimals, not sure if it's enough but in case anyone it's curious:

    D Grade Cubimals
    Chick - 2
    Butterfly - 5
    Pig - 5

    C Grade Cubimals
    Frog - 2
    Firefly - 3

    B Grade Cubimals
    Bureaucrat - 1
    Cactus - 1
    Sno Cone Vendor- 1
    Posted 12 months ago by AbelC Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Here's some more for you. Total = 86.

    Chick: 13
    Butterfly: 12
    Batterfly: 8
    Firefly: 7
    Crab: 8
    Pig: 13
    Frog: 11
    Smuggler: 1
    Snocone vendor: 1
    Beurocrat: 3
    Juju: 2
    Deimaginator: 1
    Uncle Friendly: 1
    Squid: 2
    Cactus: 3
    Posted 12 months ago by Shepherdmoon Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Right!  I'm finally ready to post my lot.  :)

    D Grade Cubimals - 44.78%
    Chick - 32
    Piggy - 27
    Butterfly - 31

    C Grade Cubimals - 34.83%
    Batterfly - 19
    Firefly - 17
    Frog - 12
    Crab -  22

    B Grade Cubimals - 15.42%
    Bureaucrat - 4
    Cactus - 5
    Squid - 7
    Juju - 4
    Sno Cone Vendor - 4
    Greeterbot - 4
    Smuggler - 2
    Dust Bunny - 0
    Deimaginator - 1

    A Grade Cubimals - 4.98%
    Helga - 1
    Uncle Friendly - 4
    Gwendolyn - 2
    Yeti - 1
    Magic Rock - 1
    Rube - 0
    Rook - 1

    Total - 201
    Posted 12 months ago by Jheya Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Ok, now cubis are interesting to me :)

    One comment I would add as a game programmer, the odds are likely set in the software as fractions based off a power of 2, e.g. 1000/16384, not as base 10 fractions (165/1000). Most pseduo-random number generaters work off of full byte value, e.g. 256, 65536 etc. for the denominator, so its easier to set the fractional results up off these powers of 2.
    Posted 12 months ago by Sturminator IX Subscriber! | Permalink
  • I thought it interesting that the first ever Cubi I bought from a vender is a Squid.

    :)
    Posted 12 months ago by MeherMan Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Froot has numbers!  For frends!

    D Grade Cubimals - 99 (50.51%)
    Chick - 30
    Piggy - 30
    Butterfly - 39

    C Grade Cubimals - 59 (30.10%)
    Batterfly - 15
    Firefly - 17
    Frog - 8
    Crab - 19

    B Grade Cubimals - 29 (14.80%)
    Bureaucrat - 4
    Cactus - 3
    Squid - 5
    Juju - 5
    Sno Cone Vendor - 4
    Greeterbot - 3
    Smuggler - 2
    Dust Bunny - 2
    Deimaginator - 1

    A Grade Cubimals - 9 (4.59%)
    Helga - 0
    Uncle Friendly - 3
    Gwendolyn - 2
    Yeti - 2
    Magic Rock - 0
    Rube - 1
    Rook - 1

    Total - 196 (980,000 currants worth of cubimal boxes!)
    Posted 12 months ago by Froot Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Somewhat out of boredom, somewhat out of love of math, I bought 100 boxes all at once from one vendor, here are the results, sorted by ratings, then alphabetical

    100 cubimals bought en masse in Kosi Aracana

    19 * D - Butterfly
    14 * D - Chick
    17 * D - Piggy

     7 * C - Batterfly
     5 * C - Crab
     6 * C - Firefly
     7 * C - Frog

     6 * B - Bureaucrat
     5 * B - Cactus
     2 * B - Deimaginator
     2 * B - Dust Bunny
     4 * B - Juju
     1 * B - Smuggler
     1 * B - Squid

     1 * A - Magic Rock
     2 * A - Rube
     1 * A - Uncle Friendly

    not found this time

    B - Greeterbot
    B - Sno Cone Vendor
    A - Gwendolyn
    A - Helga
    A - Rook
    A - Yeti
    Posted 12 months ago by mr granberry Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Just opened 101 cubimals - All bought at the same vendor. 9 Batterfly Cubimals 2 Bureaucrat Cubimals 22 Butterfly Cubimals 15 Chick Cubimals 10 Crab Cubimals 3 Dust Bunny Cubimals 7 Firefly Cubimals 3 Frog cubimals 3 Greeterbot Cubimals 1 Helga Cubimal 1 Juju Cubimal 18 Piggy Cubimals 3 Smuggler Cubimals 2 Sno Cone Vendor Cubimals 1 Squid Cubimal
    Posted 12 months ago by Oaf Tobark-Gazoola Subscriber! | Permalink
  • I opened 35 cubimals I've been saving for today. Here are my results:

    35 Cubimal Boxes opened to reveal:

    D Grade Cubimals

    9 Chicks
    3 Piggies
    3 Butterflies

    C Grade Cubimals

    4 Frogs
    3 Batterflies
    1 Crab
    5 Fireflies

    B Grade Cubimals

    2 Sno Cone Vendors
    1 Juju
    1 Greeterbot
    1 Deimaginator
    1 Dust bunny

    A Grade Cubimals

    1 Helga
    Posted 12 months ago by Little Miss Giggles Subscriber! | Permalink
  • For the second time, one hundred cubi boxes bought en masse,
    this time in Hayden Seek Alley
    With no further ado:

    23 * D - Butterfly
    19 * D - Chick
    14 * D - Piggy

     5 * C - Batterfly
     5 * C - Crab
     9 * C - Firefly
     7 * C - Frog

     2 * B - Bureaucrat
     2 * B - Greeterbot
     4 * B - Juju
     2 * B - Smuggler
     2 * B - Sno Cone Vendor
     3 * B - Squid

     1 * A - Gwendolyn
     2 * A - Helga

    not found this time

    B - Cactus
    B - Deimaginator
    B - Dust Bunny
    A - Magic Rock
    A - Rook
    A - Rube
    A - Uncle Friendly
    A - Yeti
    Posted 12 months ago by mr granberry Subscriber! | Permalink
  • What's weird is I got 2 helgas, 2 magic rocks, my friend gotta rook (we did this together, gave her some money) but no Gwendolyn. We've gotten 4 dustbunnies but no smuggler.
    Posted 12 months ago by Ameh.Loves.Fudge Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Hi. I just opened 80 cubi boxes and recorded my result. Thought I'd share it with you.
    (40 from Vuoksi Vale, 37 from Marylpole Mount, 3 from the Rube.)

    D Grade Cubimals
    Chick - 14
    Piggy - 8
    Butterfly - 11

    C Grade Cubimals
    Frog - 11
    Batterfly - 9
    Crab - 5
    Firefly - 10

    B Grade Cubimals
    Bureaucrat - 1
    Sno Cone Vendor - 1
    Juju - 1
    Cactus - 2
    Squid - 1
    Greeterbot - 1
    Deimaginator - 1
    Smuggler - 2
    Dust Bunny - 1

    A Grade Cubimals
    Gwendolyn - 0
    Magic Rock - 1
    Helga - 0
    Yeti - 0
    Uncle Friendly - 0
    Rube - 0
    Rook - 0
    Posted 12 months ago by Hindrick Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Hi! I won 50 boxes and here are the results of opening them:

    Out of my 50 unopened boxes, I got:

    14 Chick
    8 Piggy
    6 Butterfly
    3 Frog
    4 Batterfly
    3 Crab
    3 Firefly
    2 Sno Cone Vendor
    2 Cactus
    2 Squid
    1 Greeterbot
    1 Smuggler
    1 Magic Rock
    Posted 12 months ago by Scarlett Bearsdale Subscriber! | Permalink
  • For the third (and probably last) time, one hundred cubi boxes bought en masse,
    this time in Jacob's Climb

    17 * D - Butterfly
    16 * D - Chick
    13 * D - Piggy

     6 * C - Batterfly
    10 * C - Crab
     9 * C - Firefly
     8 * C - Frog

     4 * B - Bureaucrat
     1 * B - Cactus
     1 * B - Deimaginator
     1 * B - Dust Bunny
     2 * B - Greeterbot
     2 * B - Juju
     3 * B - Smuggler
     1 * B - Sno Cone Vendor
     3 * B - Squid

     1 * A - Uncle Friendly
     2 * A - Yeti

    not found this time
    A - Gwendolyn
    A - Helga
    A - Magic Rock
    A - Rook
    A - Rube
    Posted 12 months ago by mr granberry Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Thanks all for the data, I took a big break from Glitch so my numbers are pretty far behind. I'm gonna work on adding everything together, and I will also start adding a speculation section on what the true odds might be. It seems like everything besides Grade A is fairly predictable. I previously revised my gradings leading up to this, (i.e. no more B, just BB and BBB) so I hope to add it to my spreadsheet and guide very soon.
    Posted 12 months ago by Haze Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Re: Decreasing value due to rising supply. 

    Don't forget demand!  Sure, there'll be a few more Rooks and Rubes floating around, but presumably the number of Glitches will also continue to increase.  It's possible that growth of the userbase won't keep up during Beta, but once the game is re-launched and the n00bs come flooding in, everything--even chicks--ought to explode in value.
    Posted 12 months ago by E D D I E Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Sys Rq, that didn't happen at launch, and there were way fewer cubimals floating around.  Values didn't change much at all, so I wouldn't invest a lot of money.  You aren't going to make money on commons.  People will still give them away.
    Posted 12 months ago by WindBorn Subscriber! | Permalink
  • So where is the better place to buy from vendors, I'm looking for a Rube, Helga and Uncle Friendly.  Are you including the cubimals that the Rube occasionally passes out.  Rube gave me Gwen, and Yeti, traded a bean for Gwen and a snow cone for Yeti. 

    I was just hoping different vendors might favor some of the harder to get cubimals and are dolls also coming in the cubimal boxes from the vendors?
    Posted 12 months ago by xoxJulie Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Great, Thanks. What's the deal with Cubimals being more rare than another but the other being worth more?
    Posted 11 months ago by codenameL4343 Subscriber! | Permalink
  • I updated the numbers and spreadsheets, and I added projected odds. Right now I think all non Grade A cubimals have the same odds as other cubimals within the same rating group. This means D are 16.6%, C are 8%, BB are 2% and BBB are 1.25%. These numbers are very close to the average odds of each rating group, and can be viewed in the spreadsheet. They are also logical values based off of the group shares of 50% 32% 15% 3% that have been persistent since the beginning. It's not an exact science, but right now that's my guess.
    Posted 11 months ago by Haze Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Hey, I just opened 30 boxes bought from Telanga Tops:

    D Grade:
    Chick - 8
    Piggie - 5
    Butterfly - 7

    C Grade:
    Batterfly - 1
    Firefly - 2
    Frog - 1
    Crab - 2

    B Grade:
    Bureaucrat - 1
    Sno-cone - 1
    Dustbunny - 1
    Juju - 1

    No A Grades :(

    (and now have 436 currants)
    Posted 11 months ago by Xyrem Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Just bought 80 cubi boxes from Marylpole Mount.

    D Grade Cubimals
    Chick - 14
    Piggy - 10
    Butterfly - 15

    C Grade Cubimals
    Frog - 7
    Batterfly - 5
    Crab - 4
    Firefly - 8

    B Grade Cubimals
    Bureaucrat - 3
    Sno Cone Vendor - 2
    Juju - 1
    Cactus - 0
    Squid - 2
    Greeterbot - 2
    Deimaginator - 2
    Smuggler - 2
    Dust Bunny - 0

    A Grade Cubimals
    Gwendolyn - 1
    Magic Rock - 2
    Helga - 0 
    Yeti - 0
    Uncle Friendly - 0
    Rube - 0
    Rook - 0

    Woooo now to go sell them so I can blow even more money.

    Edit: 21 more:
    D Grade Cubimals
    Chick - 1
    Piggy - 2
    Butterfly - 3

    C Grade Cubimals
    Frog - 0
    Batterfly - 3
    Crab - 3
    Firefly - 1

    B Grade Cubimals
    Bureaucrat - 1
    Sno Cone Vendor - 1
    Juju - 1
    Cactus - 1
    Squid - 1
    Greeterbot - 0
    Deimaginator - 0
    Smuggler - 0
    Dust Bunny - 0

    A Grade Cubimals
    Gwendolyn - 0
    Magic Rock - 1
    Helga - 0 
    Yeti - 0
    Uncle Friendly - 1
    Rube - 0
    Rook - 0 
    Posted 11 months ago by Moi Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Here's my submission: Bought 32 Cubimals in Tejj Trades 1-24-12

    D-
    6 piggy
    6 butterfly

    C-
    2 batterfly
    5 frog
    2 crab
    1 firefly

    B-
    1 bureaucrat
    2 juju
    1 sno cone vender
    2 dustbunny

    A-
    1 rook

    My first rook!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Still need Uncle Friendly, The Rock and The Rube.
    Posted 11 months ago by bayBi Subscriber! | Permalink
  • Bah, I really should be taking a part of this. I've spent millions on cubimals, and I've noticed the ones I open vary in rarity to what you have on the list. Next time!!!
    Posted 11 months ago by HAVOK PEW SUMMERS Subscriber! | Permalink
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